WASHINGTON: American lawmakers and policy planners are being primed for the return of BJP to power at the center , with its controversial regional satrap Narendra Modi possibly at the helm as prime minister, following what US analysts say is a "precipitous" decline in the Congress party's standing.
A September 1 report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), a bipartisan and independent research wing of the US Congress that provides briefs for American lawmakers, has gone where forecasters fear to tread: boldly projecting a BJP resurgence. It has also forewarned Washington about the possible elevation to the PMO of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi , who was denied a US visa in 2005 for his alleged complicity in the 2002 riots.
"Although still in some disorder in 2011, there are signs that the BJP has made changes necessary to be a formidable challenger in scheduled 2014 polls. These include a more effective branding of the party as one focused on development and good governance rather than emotive, Hindutva-related issues, and Gadkari's success at quelling intra-party dissidence and, by some accounts, showing superior strategizing and organizing skills as compared to his predecessors," the 94-page report notes.
But it's not Gadkari, or the patriarch L K Advani or Sushma Swaraj who US pundits think is a shoo-in as the prime minister. "Among the party's likely candidates for the prime ministership in future elections is Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who has overseen impressive development successes in his state, but who is also dogged by controversy over his alleged complicity in lethal anti-Muslim rioting there in 2002," the report notes in a surprising long-term projection . It adds that Modi has in the past been denied a US visa under an American law barring entry for foreign government officials found to be complicit in severe violations of religious freedom.
US officials have told this correspondent in background conversations that should Modi become PM, Washington's travel ban on him will become infructuous. However, the report says Modi will face impediments on his drive to the top, noting that despite his clear political and economic successes in Gujarat, he "continues to be haunted by the 2002 Ahmadabad riots, a topic he has never fully addressed in public." It also projects that although Modi is a safe bet to win a third term in 2012 state elections, "his aspirations to be the BJP's prime ministerial candidate face significant obstacles, not least the likelihood that Muslims and liberal-minded Hindus would represent an anti-Modi bloc at the national level, and BJP's key ally in Bihar, Nitish's JD(U), could be expected to abandon the alliance in protest."
In contrast to the upbeat assessment of BJP prospects, the CRS report says even before major corruption scandals broke in late 2010, the Congress-led UPA was under considerable criticism for "drift and ineffectiveness."
While not directly pitching Modi against Rahul Gandhi, the CRS report suggests that could well happen. It says "Congress figures' support for the future leadership role of Sonia Gandhi's youthful son has resulted in the corresponding undermining of Singh's political authority."
A September 1 report by the US Congressional Research Service (CRS), a bipartisan and independent research wing of the US Congress that provides briefs for American lawmakers, has gone where forecasters fear to tread: boldly projecting a BJP resurgence. It has also forewarned Washington about the possible elevation to the PMO of Gujarat CM Narendra Modi , who was denied a US visa in 2005 for his alleged complicity in the 2002 riots.
"Although still in some disorder in 2011, there are signs that the BJP has made changes necessary to be a formidable challenger in scheduled 2014 polls. These include a more effective branding of the party as one focused on development and good governance rather than emotive, Hindutva-related issues, and Gadkari's success at quelling intra-party dissidence and, by some accounts, showing superior strategizing and organizing skills as compared to his predecessors," the 94-page report notes.
But it's not Gadkari, or the patriarch L K Advani or Sushma Swaraj who US pundits think is a shoo-in as the prime minister. "Among the party's likely candidates for the prime ministership in future elections is Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi, who has overseen impressive development successes in his state, but who is also dogged by controversy over his alleged complicity in lethal anti-Muslim rioting there in 2002," the report notes in a surprising long-term projection . It adds that Modi has in the past been denied a US visa under an American law barring entry for foreign government officials found to be complicit in severe violations of religious freedom.
US officials have told this correspondent in background conversations that should Modi become PM, Washington's travel ban on him will become infructuous. However, the report says Modi will face impediments on his drive to the top, noting that despite his clear political and economic successes in Gujarat, he "continues to be haunted by the 2002 Ahmadabad riots, a topic he has never fully addressed in public." It also projects that although Modi is a safe bet to win a third term in 2012 state elections, "his aspirations to be the BJP's prime ministerial candidate face significant obstacles, not least the likelihood that Muslims and liberal-minded Hindus would represent an anti-Modi bloc at the national level, and BJP's key ally in Bihar, Nitish's JD(U), could be expected to abandon the alliance in protest."
In contrast to the upbeat assessment of BJP prospects, the CRS report says even before major corruption scandals broke in late 2010, the Congress-led UPA was under considerable criticism for "drift and ineffectiveness."
While not directly pitching Modi against Rahul Gandhi, the CRS report suggests that could well happen. It says "Congress figures' support for the future leadership role of Sonia Gandhi's youthful son has resulted in the corresponding undermining of Singh's political authority."
